Toby Ord

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Popular posts: 2
Total points: 555
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Visit tobyord.com → On Hacker News Jun 2025 – Apr 2026

AI & Machine Learning 2 Society, Policy & Culture 1 Tech Industry & Business 1

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Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?

2025249 points136 comments AI & Machine Learning details

Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can be explained by an extremely simple mathematical model — a constant rate of failing during each minute a human would take