Toby Ord personal blog
Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?
Building on the recent empirical work of Kwa et al. (2025), I show that within their suite of research-engineering tasks the performance of AI agents on longer-duration tasks can be explained by an extremely simple mathematical model — a constant rate of failing during each minute a human would take
- Points
- 249
- HN comments
- 136
- Submissions
- 1
- Cited by
- 0 commenters
AI & Machine LearningSociety, Policy & Culture2025
On Hacker News
| Submitted | Title on HN | Points | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2025 | Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents? by EvgeniyZh | 249 | 136 |
