31
Using Benford’s Law to Detect Bitcoin Manipulation
Economist Gary Smith sends along this post with the above title and the subtitle, “Market prices are not invariably equal to intrinsic values.” Here’s Smith:
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32
Why We Sleep: A Tale of Institutional Failure
In our previous installment of this podcast, we learned from independent researcher Alexey Guzey that famed sleep researcher Matthew Walker seems to have committed research misconduct in his bestselling book, Why We Sleep. Walker is a University of California professor, Google researcher, and Ted talk star, and his…
33
Which one of these will be the biggest “unicorn” failure ever?
Jeffrey Lee Funk and Gary Smith have a list of startups with $3 bllion or more in cumulative losses:
34
What’s Wrong with Bayes
My problem is not just with the methods—although I do have problems with the method—but also with the ideology.
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Bad stuff going down at the American Sociological Association
I knew the Association for Psychological Science, the American Psychological Association, the American Political Science Association, the American Statistical Association, and the National Academy of Sciences had problems. It turns out the American Sociological Association does some bad things too.
36
I disagree with Turing and Kahneman regarding statistical evidence (2014)
It’s funny. I’m the statistician, but I’m more skeptical about statistics, compared to these renowned scientists.
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Those correction notices, in full
In light of our recent discussion of the unwillingness of authors of published papers to acknowledge their mistakes, I thought I’d post the four correction notices that I’ve felt the need to issue.
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An election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up”
tl;dr. In 2024, pre-election polls were off by about 2 percentage points. Election forecasters were aware of this and incorporated this into their uncertainties. But if you were not following the forecasts carefully, you might’ve not realized this. You might have mistakenly thought that, when predictions happened to…
39
Dean of Engineering at University of Nevada wrote a paper that’s bad
“As we look to sleep and neuroscience for answers we can study flies specifically the Drosophila melanogaster we highlight in our research.”
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Deterministic thinking: a problem in how we think, not just in how we act
– Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential.
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EU proposing to regulate the use of Bayesian estimation
The European Commission just released their Proposal for a Regulation on a European approach for Artificial Intelligence . They finally get around to a definition of “AI” on page 60 of the report (link above):
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A successful example of "adversarial collaboration"
We synthesized the vast, contradictory scholarly literature on gender bias in academic science from 2000 to 2020. . . . Claims and counterclaims regarding the presence or absence of sexism span a range of evaluation contexts. Our approach relied on a combination of meta-analysis and analytic dissection. We evaluated…
43
Dumb statistical models, always making people look bad
This is Jessica. In my Prediction for Decision-making class last quarter we talked about human predictions and decisions relative to algorithmic ones. This led to a discussion about why it’s often hard to demonstrate the value of human knowledge once you have a decent statistical model.
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Defining Statistical Models in Jax?
This is Bob. And I’d like to know the best way for us to code a bunch of models in JAX to use to evaluate parallel algorithms including normalizing flows. I’m going to dump out my current thinking, but I’m really hoping to get feedback from experts on the best way to do this without starting a flame war in the…
45
One night in Uzbekistan: Why was this one data point so influential?
We have a comment coming out in Nature next week that is going to cause the retraction of a high-profile paper by Kotz et al. from last year (the second most cited climate paper in the news in 2024).
46
How to Think about Correlation?
I am an economist at the Federal Trade Commission with a very basic statistics question, one that I have put to several fairly high-powered econometricians, and to which no one has had a satisfying answer.
47
Holes in Bayesian Statistics
Every philosophy has holes, and it is the responsibility of proponents of a philosophy to point out these problems. Here are a few holes in Bayesian data analysis: (1) the usual rules of conditional probability fail in the quantum realm, (2) flat or weak priors lead to terrible inferences about things we care about…
48
Bayesian statistics and machine learning: How do they differ?
My colleagues and I are disagreeing on the differentiation between machine learning and Bayesian statistical approaches. I find them philosophically distinct, but there are some in our group who would like to lump them together as both examples of machine learning. I have been favoring a definition for Bayesian…
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The examples in the textbooks are not representative of real world problems
Bill Harris points to this cartoon from Randall Munroe. I think he (Munroe) is really on to something here. Not about Bayes’s theorem but about the sorts of examples that are in textbooks.
50
Update on the fake story about the river laborers paying people to whip them
As you might remember from a few months ago , there was a story going around that some economists just looooved to tell. The story had all sorts of attributes that you might expect would make economists happy , including a paradox in which apparently bad behavior (whipping people to get them to work harder) was…