Andrew Gelman personal blog
An election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up”
tl;dr. In 2024, pre-election polls were off by about 2 percentage points. Election forecasters were aware of this and incorporated this into their uncertainties. But if you were not following the forecasts carefully, you might’ve not realized this. You might have mistakenly thought that, when predictions happened to…
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Society, Policy & CultureMath & Algorithms2025
On Hacker News
| Submitted | Title on HN | Points | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | An election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up” by luu | 124 | 290 |
