Jonathan Becker personal blog
The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets
Slot machines on the Las Vegas Strip return about 93 cents on the dollar. This is widely considered some of the worst odds in gambling. Yet on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, traders have wagered vast sums on longshot contracts with historical returns as low as 43 cents on the dollar. Thousands of…
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Tech Industry & BusinessMath & Algorithms2026
On Hacker News
| Submitted | Title on HN | Points | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets by jonbecker | 233 | 187 |
