Andrew Gelman personal blog
Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast
We’ve been writing a bit about some odd tail behavior in the Fivethirtyeight election forecast, for example that it was giving Joe Biden a 3% chance of winning Alabama (which seemed high), it was displaying Trump winning California as in “the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible” (which didn’t seem right)…
- Points
- 185
- HN comments
- 234
- Submissions
- 1
- Cited by
- 0 commenters
Databases & DataMath & Algorithms2020
On Hacker News
| Submitted | Title on HN | Points | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2020 | Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast by buddhiajuke | 185 | 234 |
