Erik Bernhardsson personal blog
Why software projects take longer than you think – a statistical model
Anyone who built software for a while knows that estimating how long something is going to take is hard. It's hard to come up with an unbiased estimate of how long something will take, when fundamentally the work in itself is about solving something.
- Points
- 700
- HN comments
- 621
- Submissions
- 3
- Cited by
- 10 commenters
Software EngineeringTech Industry & Business2019
On Hacker News
| Submitted | Title on HN | Points | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2019 | Why software projects take longer than you think – a statistical model by mzl | 700 | 317 |
| Mar 6, 2021 | Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model (2019) by max_ | 277 | 131 |
| Jul 14, 2023 | Why software projects take longer than you think: a statistical model (2019) by thunderbong | 185 | 173 |
Cited in comments
Linked from 12 Hacker News comments by 10 different people, from May 2019 to Dec 2025.
Most recent:
- based2 · Dec 7, 2025
- WantonQuantum · Jan 5, 2025
- mif · May 28, 2024
- justinbmeyer · Jan 10, 2024
- ElFitz · Jun 16, 2023
- ultra_nick · May 3, 2023
