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An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem
Bayes’ Theorem for the curious and bewildered; an excruciatingly gentle introduction.
Eliezer Yudkowsky
One Eliezer Yudkowsky writes about the fine art of human rationality . Over the last few decades, science has found an increasing amount to say about sanity. Probability theory and decision theory give us the formal math; and experimental psychology, particularly the subfield of cognitive biases, has shown us how…
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The AI-Box Experiment
On the first occasion (in March 2002), Eliezer Yudkowsky simulated the AI and Nathan Russell simulated the gatekeeper. The AI’s handicap (the amount paid by the AI party to the gatekeeper party if not released) was set at $10. On the second occasion (in July 2002), Eliezer Yudkowsky simulated the AI and David…
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Bayes' Theorem explained by Yudkowsky
Bayes’ Theorem for the curious and bewildered; an excruciatingly gentle introduction.
4
The Simple Truth
“I remember this paper I wrote on existentialism. My teacher gave it back with an F. She’d underlined true and truth wherever it appeared in the essay, probably about twenty times, with a question mark beside each. She wanted to know what I meant by truth.”
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Three Major Singularity Schools
( Originally appeared on the Machine Intelligence Research Institute blog, September 2007.)