1
Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.
will go to Electronic Frontier Foundation (www.eff.org) if Griffin wins, or The Computer History Museum (www.computerhistory.org) if Bell wins.
Long Bets
The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a…
- Popular posts
- 6
- Total points
- 847
- HN comments
- 664
- Rank
- #1,557 company
Visit longbets.org → On Hacker News Nov 2010 – Aug 2026
2
The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)
will go to Bletchly Park Trust if Keith wins, or The Internet Archive if Haughey wins.
3
Longbets: A bioerror will lead to one million casualties by Dec 2020
Biotechnology is plainly advancing rapidly, and by 2020 there will be thousands-even millions-of people with the capability to cause a catastrophic biological disaster. My concern is not only organized terrorist groups, but individual weirdos with the mindset of the people who now design computer viruses. Even if all…
4
Esther Dyson vs Bill Campbell: 2002 − 2012
will go to The Eurasia Foundation (www.eurasia.org) if Dyson wins, or The Computer History Museum (www.computerhistory.org) if Campbell wins.
5
Warren Buffett's bet against hedge funds at the Long Now Foundation (2008-17)
will go to Girls Incorporated of Omaha if Buffett wins, or Friends of Absolute Return for Kids, Inc if Protege Partners, LLC wins.
6
By 2029 no computer or “machine intelligence” will have passed the Turing Test
will go to The Electronic Frontier Foundation if Kapor wins, or The Kurzweil Foundation if Kurzweil wins.